ANALYSIS OF FIRE HAZARD OF TRANSFORMERS BASED ON STATISTICAL DATA ARRAYS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33269/nvcz.2025.2(20).73-81Keywords:
transformer, transformer substation, statistical data arrays, fire risk, fire protection, risk-oriented analysisAbstract
The article considers the problem of fire hazard of transformer equipment, which is a key element of the energy infrastructure and determines the stability and reliability of power supply in industrial and urban networks. Transformer fires are accompanied by significant material losses, disruptions in the functioning of the power system and pose a threat to the life and health of people. The relevance of the study is due to the increase in the frequency of emergencies in conditions of military operations, wear and tear of electrical equipment and an increase in the load on the power grid, which requires a comprehensive analysis of statistical data and the construction of fire hazard assessment models.
The article systematizes and processes the arrays of statistical information on fires that occurred on transformers. The dynamics of changes in the frequency of fires in recent years is analyzed, the most common causes of ignition and factors affecting the spread of fire are identified. Special attention is paid to the correlations between the technical condition of the equipment, operating conditions and the intensity of fire risks. Based on the generalized data, statistical models of hazard assessment are built, which allow predicting the probability of fires depending on the group of risk factors.
The scientific novelty of the work lies in the application of a comprehensive approach to the analysis of statistical arrays, which combines classical data processing methods with elements of risk-oriented analysis. This allowed us to identify priority areas for minimizing danger, in particular, increasing the reliability of transformer diagnostics, modernizing fire protection systems and forming a basis for further mathematical modeling of risks. The practical significance of the results obtained lies in the possibility of using the proposed approaches to assess the fire hazard of transformers, developing preventive measures and optimizing the system of technogenic safety of energy infrastructure based on statistical data.
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