DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR DESCRIBING AND EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DECISION-MAKING AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE GARRISON

Abstract

The article solves an urgent scientific and applied problem regarding increasing the efficiency of resource management of fire and rescue units of the garrison of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. The relevance of the study is due to the need to optimize the distribution of forces and means in conditions of high intensity of calls and limited resource provision. The object of the study is the processes of functioning of the garrison as a complex dynamic system subject to the influence of random factors. A system-cybernetic approach is applied in the work, within which the state of the system is determined by the dynamic interaction of four key groups of resources: incoming events, personnel, technical means and material means. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a complex stochastic mathematical model, where the functioning of units is represented as a vector random process with dependent components. A formalized description of the behavior of resource units through transition graphs between probabilistic states is proposed. Unlike existing approaches, the model defines the intensity functions of transition flows, which dynamically depend on the average values of the states of other resource groups, which allows taking into account the effect of transitive interaction in the system. The application of the quasi-deterministic approach (the method of dynamics of average values) allowed moving from a stochastic description to systems of differential equations describing the evolution of resource indicators in time. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the development of an algorithm for calculating operational readiness coefficients, which act as integrated indicators of management efficiency. Ratios of initial conditions for numerical integration of the derived systems of equations are formed, which makes it possible to predict the level of garrison readiness under various load scenarios. The modeling results create a scientific and methodological basis for making informed management decisions regarding the rational use of forces and means, ensuring the stability of unit functioning during peak periods.